Updated on March 11, 2025 10:04:13 AM EDT

There are headlines hitting the wires that President Trump is considering raising the previously announced tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. Market participants are more focused on tomorrow and Thursday’s economic releases than tariffs at this moment. This could change if there is a noticeable move in stocks later today or if there are further headlines on the topic.

Tomorrow brings us a highly influential inflation reading in the morning and also has an afternoon event that may affect rates later in the day. February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 8:30 AM ET. This index measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. The overall CPI is expected to show a 0.3% increase, as is the more important core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Both are expected to slow 0.1% from January’s pace on an annual basis. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be smaller increases in the monthly and year-over-year readings. Stronger than anticipated readings will likely cause bond selling and fuel debate about the Fed’s plans with monetary policy, leading to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

Also tomorrow is the 10-year Treasury Note auction that may have an impact on afternoon mortgage pricing. Results will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand was high for the securities, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading as it would hint that investors still have an appetite for longer-term debt. However, weak demand in the sale could lead to selling and an increase in mortgage rates before closing tomorrow.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2025