Updated on October 28, 2024 10:07:16 AM EDT
Today is the only day of the week without at least one piece of relevant economic data being released. Starting the week light is in no way an indication of what the rest of it will be like though. We have seven monthly and quarterly reports scheduled this week with four of them labeled highly important. In addition to the data, there are also two Treasury auctions that may come into play during afternoon trading today and/or tomorrow. Corporate earnings season is still in effect, but the Fed’s pre-FOMC meeting quiet period is also, meaning we shouldn’t hear much from individual members until next week’s meeting.
This week’s activities will begin at 1:00 PM this afternoon when results of today’s 5-year Treasury Note auction are announced. There will be another sale tomorrow with 7-year Notes being sold. If these sales are met with a strong demand from investors, bond prices may rise during early afternoon trading. This could lead to improvements in mortgage rates during early afternoon trading. A lackluster investor interest may create selling in the broader bond market and lead to slight upward revisions to mortgage rates.
Octobers Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will kick-off this week’s economic releases at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This Conference Board index helps us gauge consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 99.2, up from September’s 98.7. That would mean surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial and employment situations than they did last month and are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future. Good news for the bond market would be a noticeable decline because waning confidence usually translates to weaker consumer spending levels, which makes up over two-thirds of our economy. The lower the reading, the better the news for mortgage rates.
Overall, the most important day of the week for rates is any other than today or tomorrow. The economic data that is being released Wednesday, Thursday and Friday can all heavily move the markets. Having them scheduled back-to-back-to-back means we could see a drastic move in rates either direction this week or extremely volatility from one day to another. With an FOMC meeting scheduled for next week, we should hear very little from individual Fed members due to their required quiet period. Corporate earnings will still make headlines, but bond traders will be focused on this week’s data to help prepare for that FOMC meeting. It would be prudent to carefully watch the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future. The latter days should bring plenty of headlines and movement in rates.
©Mortgage Commentary 2024