Market Commentary

Updated on October 22, 2024 10:07:48 AM EDT

There is no relevant economic data set for release today. This morning’s early bond gains are nothing to get excited about. The way yesterday’s bond sell-off picked up momentum throughout the afternoon with no major headlines to justify it, seeing a small bounce this morning doesn’t come as a surprise. Yesterday’s selling pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield back to its highest level since late July, erasing well over two months of gains. The spike in yields is reflected in higher mortgage rates also. Unfortunately, there isn’t much showing that leads us to believe the sell-off may be done quite yet.

Tomorrow has one morning economic release followed by two afternoon events scheduled that may affect mortgage rates. First up is Septembers Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtors is expected to announce there was a modest increase in home resales last month. Forecasts mostly range from down slightly to up a tad with the majority leaning up modestly. A strengthening housing sector is a sign of broader economic growth that makes bonds less appealing to investors. Therefore, a large decline in sales would be good news for mortgage rates.

There also is a 20-year Treasury Bond auction taking place tomorrow. If this sale is met with a strong demand from investors, particularly international buyers, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading. This could lead to a slight improvement in mortgage rates after the results of the sale are posted at 1:00 PM ET. On the other hand, a lackluster interest in the securities may create selling in the broader bond market and lead to a slight upward revision to mortgage rates early tomorrow afternoon.

Closing tomorrow’s relevant activities will be the release of the Federal Reserves Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET. It summarizes economic activity through the eyes of business contacts within each Fed region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings when making monetary policy decisions, so look for a potential reaction during mid-afternoon trading. It probably will not cause a big sell-off in the stock or bond markets, but is still worth watching as it could draw enough of a reaction to change rates slightly.